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Who is responsible for the Detroit Red Wings’ Game 6 win over the Anaheim Ducks?

Posted by Mike on May 11, 2013 in Red Wings
Two solid plays on the forecheck leads to a turnover and the Red Wings' third goal

Two solid plays on the forecheck leads to a turnover and the Red Wings’ third goal

So what did the Red Wings need to stay alive, despite getting some bad luck and giving away a two goal lead with four minutes to go? Just Henrik Zetterberg playing the game of his life and Justin Abdelkader returning to the lineup and going to the net. The two players combined for nearly two full goals by themselves on Friday night.

Allowed

Kyle Quincey throws a sloppy pass in the neutral zone directly to Emerson Etem. Etem gives to Kyle Palmieri, who takes a wrist shot that hits the post, bounces of Brendan Smith and goes into the net. Not much Smith could have done. Responsibility: Kyle Quincey (0.5), luck (0.5)

Valtteri Filppula gets the puck after an errant Anaheim shot, takes it behind his own net — then gives a drop pass to nobody. The puck bounces off the boards and right to Etem on the back door who deposits in the net. Responsibility: Valterri Filppula (1)

The puck is dumped into the Red Wings zone and Brendan Smith immediately loses a battle with Corey Perry. Quincey trips over Perry’s stick and/or Perry trips Quincey. The puck comes to half boards and is thrown on net, where Smith is left to battle with two guys as Pavel Datysuk meanders into the play late and goes straight for the puck instead of the third man down low. Bobby Ryan eventually scoops in a rebound. Responsibility: Brendan Smith (0.5), Pavel Datsyuk (0.5)

 

Scored

Pavel Datsyuk gets to a missed shot and pokes it into the corner. Zetterberg picks up the puck, protects it as David Steckel hits him, then makes a backhand pass to Datsyuk. One dangle. Two dangles. Lace. Nice screen by Abdelkader in front. Responsibility: Justin Abdelkader (0.33), Pavel Datsyuk (0.33), Henrik Zetterberg (0.33)

(Power Play) Henrik Zetterberg takes a wide-open slap shot from the left side. Good screen by Johan Franzen. Responsibility: Henrik Zetterberg (0.5), Johan Franzen (0.5)

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Who is responsible for the Detroit Red Wings Game 5 loss to the Anaheim Ducks?

Posted by Mike on May 9, 2013 in Red Wings
Seconds before the game winner. Joakim Andersson stares at Nick Bonino, but reaches his stick out instead of moving his feet to cover him.

Seconds before the game winner. Joakim Andersson stares at Nick Bonino, but reaches his stick out instead of moving his feet to cover him.

Game 5 was a game of interchanging periods of domination, good goaltending, plenty of chances and plenty of blame to be spread around. Head to your torch and pitchfork store, because you need to load up on supplies.

Allowed

Cory Emmerton loses the faceoff, Kyle Palmieri picks up the puck. Patrick Eaves follows. As Palmieri turns and shoots a wrister, Eaves does a strange little shake move, to actually get out of Palmieri’s way. Anywho, the puck  finds it’s way through the four people screening Jimmy Howard and into the net. Responsibility: Cory Emmerton (0.5), Patrick Eaves (0.5)

Brendan Smith takes a holding penalty. Getzlaf gets a long pass, glides into the zone, waits, waits, waits, and finally puts it past Jimmy Howard. Joakim Andersson is backchecking and has Perry, but pulls off him and glides towards Getzlaf. That leads to Nicklas Kronwall staying back to account for the pass to Perry instead of challenging Getzlaf. Responsibility: Brendan Smith (0.5), Joakim Andersson (0.5).

Brian Lashoff gets walked in the corner by Ben Lovejoy. BEN LOVEJOY. Lovejoy steps out of the corner and dishes to Nick Bonino backdoor, who Andersson doesn’t pick up. Game over. Series one game from being over. Season one game from being over. Responsibility: Brian Lashoff (0.5), Joakim Andersson (0.5)

Scored 

(Power Play). Henrik Zetterberg with great control of the puck down in the corner, spins off a guy or two and dishes to Johan Franzen, who tries to throw it back door to Pavel Datsyuk. The pass hits an Anaheim defenseman’s skate and goes on net. Franzen beats Jonas Hiller to the puck sitting on the goal line and taps it in. Responsibility: Henrik Zetterberg (0.33), Johan Franzen (0.33), luck (0.33)

Datsyuk wins a battle for the puck in the defensive zone, comes up the boards and gets tripped. While on the ice, Datsyuk slides it to Zetterberg, who fires it low far side forcing Hiller to kick the rebound out to his left, where Samuelsson is waiting to bang it in. Responsibility: Pavel Datsyuk (0.33), Henrik Zetterberg (0.33), Mikael Samuelsson (0.33).

Your four non-stars from Wednesday’s game: 

1. Joakim Andersson (-1 goals)
2. Brian Lashoff (-0.5 goals)
3. Cory Emmerton (-0.5 goals)
4. Patrick Eaves (-0.5 goals)

Series totals:

Scored Allowed R #
Henrik Zetterberg 1.44 0 1.44
Pavel Datsyuk 1.83 -0.5 1.33
Johan Franzen 1.16 -0.25 0.91
Dan Cleary 0.91 -0.25 0.66
Gustav Nyquist 0.73 -0.33 0.4
Mikael Samuelsson 0.33 0 0.33
Luck 0.33 0 0.33
Jakub Kindl 0.45 -0.33 0.12
Danny DeKeyser 0.25 -0.25 0
Damien Brunner 0.98 -1 -0.02
Justin Abdelkader 0.25 -0.33 -0.08
Kyle Quincey 0.2 -0.33 -0.13
Valterri Filppula 0.58 -0.75 -0.17
Patrick Eaves 0.25 -0.5 -0.25
Jordin Tootoo 0 -0.5 -0.5
Jonathan Ericsson 0 -0.33 -0.33
Nicklas Kronwall 0 -0.58 -0.58
Joakim Andersson 0.53 -1.66 -1.13
Cory Emmerton 0 -1.16 -1.16
Jimmy Howard 0 -1.16 -1.16
Brian Lashoff 0.2 -1.83 -1.63
Brendan Smith 0.53 -2.91 -2.38
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Who is responsible for the Detroit Red Wings Game 4 win over the Anaheim Ducks?

Posted by Mike on May 7, 2013 in Red Wings
The moment before the moment

The moment before the moment

No wasting time. By now you know what’s happening.

The guide to who’s responsible for the Red Wings’ Game 4 overtime win, in easy to decipher fashion.

Allowed

The puck gets dumped into the zone, Kyle Quincey and Matt Belesky each go for the puck and cancel each other out. Brendan Smith picks up the puck, puts it directly into Quincey’s feet and loses it behind the net. Andrew Cogliano gets the puck and flips it to Matt Belesky, who get stopped one, whiffs once, then turns around and scores. Responsibility: Brendan Smith (1).

Jakub Kindl separates Kyle Palmieri from the puck. Etem picks up the puck in the corner. Lashoff hits him behind the net. Kindl doesn’t stay with Palmieri, who picks up the puck and throws it on net. Lashoff runs into Jimmy Howard, creating a weird rebound that kicks over to the back door. David Steckel sneaks behind Gustav Nyquist and taps it in. Responsibility: Jakub Kindl (0.33), Brian Lashoff (0.33), Gustav Nyquist (0.33).

 

Scored

Kyle Quincey lets a shot go from the point, which is stopped. Joakim Andersson wins a battle in front to poke the puck into the corner. Cleary picks up the puck and makes a great pass to Smith, who takes a slap shot that bounces twice and finds a way into the back of the net. Responsibility: Joakim Andersson (0.33), Dan Cleary (0.33), Brendan Smith (0.33).

Pavel Datsyuk takes the pass, carries the puck across the neutral zone and into the Anaheim zone. Snipe City. Responsibility: Pavel Datsyuk (1).

Lashoff knocks Daniel Winnik down, freeing up the puck. Kindl makes a nice pass to Andersson, who hits  hits Nyquist streaking up the middle. Hiller poke checks, Nyquist kind of gets a shot off before tumbling into the corner. Damien Brunner swoops in and buries the rebound. Responsibility: Brian Lashoff (0.20), Jakub Kindl (0.20) Joakim Andersson (0.20), Gustav Nyquist (0.20), Damien Brunner (0.20).

Your three Red Wings stars of the game, based on the numbers.

  1. Pavel Datsyuk (+1 goal)
  2.  Joakim Andersson (+0.53 goals)
  3. Dan Cleary (+0.33 goals)

Series totals:

Scored Allowed R #
Pavel Datsyuk 1.5 -0.5 1.00
Henrik Zetterberg 0.78 0 0.78
Dan Cleary 0.91 -0.25 0.66
Johan Franzen 0.83 -0.25 0.58
Gustav Nyquist 0.73 -0.33 0.40
Patrick Eaves 0.25 0 0.25
Jakub Kindl 0.45 -0.33 0.12
Danny DeKeyser 0.25 -0.25 0.00
Damien Brunner 0.98 -1 -0.02
Justin Abdelkader 0.25 -0.33 -0.08
Kyle Quincey 0.2 -0.33 -0.13
Joakim Andersson 0.53 -0.66 -0.13
Valterri Filppula 0.58 -0.75 -0.17
Jonathan Ericsson 0 -0.33 -0.33
Jordin Tootoo 0 -0.5 -0.50
Nicklas Kronwall 0 -0.58 -0.58
Cory Emmerton 0 -0.66 -0.66
Brian Lashoff 0.2 -1.33 -1.13
Jimmy Howard 0 -1.16 -1.16
Brendan Smith 0.53 -2.41 -1.88
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Who is to blame for the Detroit Red Wings’ Game 3 loss to the Anaheim Ducks?

Posted by Mike on May 6, 2013 in Red Wings
Ericsson, Kronwall and all covering the man in the middle of the box

Ericsson and Kronwall concerned with the middle man

The question of who to blame for the Red Wings in these playoffs is getting harder and easier at the same time. When a team loses 4-0, it’s hard to single out one person to direct all your acrimony towards. But when a team loses 4-0, the correct answer on who to blame is everybody.

Still, let’s go goal by goal for game three. Again, credit goes out to Winging it in Motown. They came up with the idea before I did. I’m just building off of their general idea.

Allowed

First of all, Justin Abdelkader takes a five minute penalty. Whether the call was just or not is up to you, but the NHL thinks it is, so Abdelkader is at fault. It’s obvious the scouting report says Anaheim likes to feed the guy in the middle of the box. The Red Wings were very concerned with him, collapsing and shading a defenseman to him.The puck comes to Getzlaf on the boards above the top of the circles. Jonathan Ericsson and Niklas Kronwall are both concerned with taking away the pass to the guy in the middle of the box (as evidenced in the photo above), leaving Corey Perry by himself in front. Kronwall is slow to react once the pass is sent down low, and Ericsson compounds it by not picking up Nick Bonino, who scored on the rebound. Responsibility: Justin Abdelkader (0.33), Jonathan Ericsson (0.33), Niklas Kronwall (0.33)

Damien Brunner gets pickpocketed at the top of the circles in his own zone. Could you blame Jimmy Howard for lunging for the puck instead of trying to make the play? Maybe, but this all on Brunner. Responsibility: Damien Brunner (1)

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Figuring out who is responsible for the outcomes of Game 1 and Game 2 in the Detroit Red Wings-Anaheim Ducks series

Posted by Mike on May 3, 2013 in Red Wings
Not where you want to be on a penalty kill

Not where you want to be on a penalty kill

As you settle into a nice balance between being giddy about Gustav Nyquist’s overtime winner and being glum about that three goal lead the Red Wings gave up, you”ll find yourself wondering, who’s responsible for all this?

Well, there are a few places you can figure it out. Winging it in Motown’s CSSI (Common Sense Scoring Index) is a good place to start. J.J. modifies goals, assists and plus/minus based on who is actually involved in the play.

He knows his stuff, but the all the numbers can be overwhelming, and occasionally I see a play a different way. I figured I have a website. Why not take the CSSI analysis and simplify it into one number that shows how many goals a player is responsible for scoring or allowing?

All I did was take each goal the Red Wings scored or allowed and divided it among the players responsible for it, then added the numbers together to get responsibility number. Build shrines for people high on list. Curse those on the bottom.

One caveat: the system punishes Jimmy Howard more than anybody else. He can’t score goals.

My methodology follows. Scroll to the end if you just want to see the numbers.

Game 1

Allowed

Jordin Tootoo takes a cross-checking penalty. Pavel Datsyuk cleanly loses a faceoff. With the Red Wings on the penalty kill, it’s also Datsyuk’s job to get to the shooter. He does that, but the shot gets through. It gets tipped and past Jimmy Howard.  Responsibility: Pavel Datsyuk (0.5), Jordin Tootoo (0.5).

Valtteri Filppula takes a hooking penalty. Danny DeKeyser loses a battle behind the net. Brendan Smith stands around instead of taking his man. Johan Franzen comes down in support to make it 3-on-3 down low. This would be good if it was even strength, but the Red Wings are on the penalty kill. Franzen left a clear path for a pass back to Ben Lovejoy after the Ducks win the battle down low. Eaves challenges the point. Franzen follows instead of dropping back and trying to get in a passing lane. Lovejoy slides it over to Teemu Selanne, who roofs it. The goal came from a weird angle shot, but I’m not blaming Jimmy Howard. It was a nice shot. Responsibility: Valterri Filppula (0.25) Danny DeKeyser (0.25), Brendan Smith (0.25), Johan Franzen (0.25). 

I’m not counting the empty net.

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An explanation of Martin Mayhew and Jim Schwartz’s draft strategy and what effect it’s had on the Detroit Lions

Posted by Mike on May 1, 2013 in Lions
That's his 'trying to hit a grand slam with no one on base face'

That’s his ‘trying to hit a grand slam with no one on base face’

The Martin Mayhew/Jim Schwartz kingdom has completed it’s fifth draft and, in doing so, may have left an explanation for the past two years.

The creation of the Lions’ draft board appears to come down to one question being asked over and over again: Can he play football well? Positions, psychological profiles, medical histories and rap sheets don’t matter.

I’m not talking about the first rounders. Those guys, especially at the top of the draft, are complete packages. It’s that second pick the Lions make that reveals their tangibles-and-nothing-else strategy.

Mayhew and Schwartz have never opted for the slightly undersized guard who has plenty of room to grow or the good-but-will-never-be-great linebacker. They take the first-round talent with character issues or a history of concussions. This is home run or strike out, boom or bust, if-you’re-not-first-you’re-last at its extreme. Take a look at every second pick (some are late first-rounders, some are second rounders) the duo has made in its tenure:

2013: Darius Slay, second round (36th overall) – torn meniscus, doctors disagree on whether he needs surgery. He has opted to go without it.

2012: Ryan Broyles, second round (54th overall) – tore his ACL nine games into his senior season.

2011: Titus Young, second round (44th overall) – character issues, including being suspended for much of his sophomore season after fighting with a teammate.

2010: Jahvid Best, first round (30th overall) – suffered two concussions in two weeks during his final season at Cal, including this one. 

2009: Brandon Pettigrew, first round (20th overall) – character issues, arrested for public intoxication and assaulting a police officer during his junior season.

Now, the Lions are looking for football players, not St. Francis of Assisi, and we’re talking about a league that saw a guy suspected of murder become the Super Bowl MVP one year later. But so far, this method hasn’t proven to be sustainable.

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Your bi-weekly Jose Alvarez/Chris Bootcheck update: Can there be co-Cy Young winners?

Posted by Mike on April 28, 2013 in James Mungro Memorial Award
(Toledo Blade)

(Toledo Blade)

The mysteries behind Jose Alvarez, the International Pitcher of Mystery, are slowly revealing themselves. How he works, isn’t.

Two weeks ago we were left with to question whether Alvarez had conned us into thinking he was good pitcher and giving him the third most prestigious award on the internet. After these two weeks, we found our answer.

We aren’t some of the many broken hearts Alvarez left in his wake. He’s just good.

Alvarez pitched three times since we last met. His line: 18 IP, 2 earned runs, 16 strikeouts, 4 walks.

Sunday, he went eight innings giving up just one earned run and striking out six in Norfolk against the Tides. I didn’t watch it (too busy calculating the average amount of penalty minutes Kelly Sutherland awards per game), but I know that  performance in Harbor Park — which every one knows is a hitter’s ballpark — in front of the Mr. Toad’s Wild Tides fan club, against the Tides’ slaughterhouse of a lineup featuring all-time greats like Russ Canzler, Danny Valencia and Lew “Model T” Ford, is going to be a performance that both fans of the International League will talk about for a long time. No con-man pitcher could do that and get away with it.

As that mystery solved itself, two others solutions were posted online. We have confirmation on what Alvarez looks like. Toledo updated his profile page:

Capture

That’s a look of intimidation. Or constipation. Either way, it’s striking fear into somebody.

And, after an exhaustive study of Alvarez’s stubble patterns, I am fairly certain that the bag guarder is indeed Alvarez after a few more days of not shaving.

The International Pitcher of Mystery’s past is crystallizing.  He’s not just a two-time winner of the best changeup in the Marlins farm system. According to his Mud Hens page, Alvarez is also a 2009 New York-Penn League All Star, a 2011 Florida State League All Star, the Southern League pitcher for the week of June 17, 2012.These newfound accolades led to some question to whether Alvarez should have been eligible for the James Mungro Memorial Award sponsored by (get at me Videxio) in the first place.

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