36 games remain in the regular season and the Tigers are a fortunate bunch. Still relatively new to being buyers at the trade deadline, many fans were astounded when they saw that the Tigers grabbed two new pieces to fit in this season’s puzzle. The first was one of the biggest prizes available in Jarrod Washburn. He has seen his ERA rise 0.59 points since he joined the club. In an after deadline deal, they also stumbled upon the bat they needed in Aubrey Huff. As fans have watched him go 2 for 24, many are wondering how lucky they really are.
Keep counting your blessings, the Tigers are in first place. Graced with what seems like a perennial weak division Detroit has taken a 67-59 record and turned it into 4 game lead. The only problem with luck is that when a team plays 162 games, it tends to even out. Using Bill James’ Theorem for projecting W-L records, the Tiger +16 run differential is good enough for 83 wins. That is the same projection of wins as the fourth place in the AL East Toronto Blue Jays. That is a 16 and 20 record from here on out. There is some good news from this however; both the Twins and White Sox are projected for 82 wins. With a common deviation of 3 wins on the formula, don’t put your rabbit’s feet away just yet.
Teachers, coaches, parents are always telling their students, players, and children to think positive thoughts. Thinking positive will lead to that positive thought ultimately materializing in real life. At least that is what the believers say. Let’s pretend all fans are believers and that will ultimately put the Tigers in the playoffs. The likely first round ALDS opponent would be the (projected) 93-69 New York Yankees. We all know how that turned out last time. HOWEVA, this is a different year. This is a year in which the Tigers are 1-5 against the Yankees. Also, not many fans know this but the Yankees also have a brand new stadium. Inside that stadium is a wind tunnel to right field. As a primarily right handed lineup the Tigers as team will have trouble matching Mark Teixeira’s home run total in that series.
Like Lions fans on opening day, there is unrealistic hope. The 2006 Tigers were 2-5 against the Bronx Bombers. C.C. Sabathia is fat. There is an 85% chance he develops type two diabetes by the time October hits. A-Rod still sucks. The only difference between the Lions and Tigers, other than them playing two different sports and the Tigers being good, is that the Tigers occasionally realize that hope. Jarrod Washburn will have pitch a decent game every now and then and Aubrey Huff will have to morph into this team’s Craig Monroe but the potential is there, another difference from the Lions.
Don’t let the division lead fool you, this team is fighting for their playoff lives every day and it is a lot closer to going away than four games. Maybe I am just trying to downplay the disappointment I would feel if the Tigers lose in the ALDS with all the Yankees talk, but one thing is for sure. Keep the lucky penny in your shoe a little longer.
